Isn't this the coolest mock-up poster ever?
A friend sent this to me last night while I was writing this entry - I liked it so much, plus it's so perfectly apt for this post, I just had to use it! =)
So in the timeless words of the Dylan chestnut:
'The line it is drawn, the curse it is cast...'
Singapore will hold it's 11th general elections since independence on 7 May 2011.
Today 27 April 2011 is Nomination Day.
Now that the dust, excitement, and drama has settled, I've done my analysis and will now attempt to make my assessment and bold prediction.
*Disclaimer* - many things will change between now and Polling day, plus there's still many unknowns, for example, there'll be lots of new 1st time voters, new citizens, and voters from areas that were previously walkovers - who knows how these guys will vote?
DavidGoliath - courtesy of Blinking Brink
WP has made a big and brave gamble....if they lose, they'll end up with nothing, not even Hougang....but I think their gamble might just pay off.
Looking at the 2006 results - Aljunied GRC polled 56.1% PAP vs 43.9% WP:
WP will need a swing of 7% to take Aljunied - they'll have to work their asses off for that 7%, but I think it can be done.
WP JBJ poster circa 1980
For Hougang, WP's Yaw Shin Leong is probably safe.
In 2006, his boss Low Thia Khiang polled 62.7% vs PAP's 37.3%, so he's got a margin of 13% to play with.
For the rest - forget it - every other 2006 result was 60+% for PAP.
So PAP can afford to take a swing of 10% and still be able to pull off a win.
Bishan/ Toa Payoh GRC - the coffee-shop unhappiness over Mas Selamat may not translate to votes, plus Chiam See Tong is very old. I saw him on TV earlier - the poor man can barely walk or talk - he may have gotten sympathy votes if he had stuck to his familiar Potong Pasir ward, but venturing out to a GRC - not a chance.
SDP CST poster circa 1984
Ang Mo Kio GRC - an unknown Reform Party team vs the PM's team - no chance.
West Coast GRC - will Kenneth Jeyaretnam's name be enough to hold up a new and inexperienced Reform Party team? Probably not.
Holland/ Bukit Timah GRC - there probably will be some backlash for Vivian Balakrishnan for his attempted character assassination, and the SDP team fielded there is as strong as it can possibly get, but they still suffer from a lingering negative image problem due to Chee Soon Juan's loony antics in the past.
Vivian - courtesy of Joshua Chiang
Tampines GRC - NSP is challenging with Goh Meng Seng and 4 other unknowns. so who wins will depend largely on whether enough people dislike under-fire Mah Bow Tan.
Choa Chu Kang GRC - might well be the dark horse GRC in this election, cos the PAP team there looks on paper to be the weakest team - NSP team smelling an upset?
Then there's the SMCs - the single wards, where a contest is based more on the candidate and what he or she can do for the ward.
Here, it's more straightforward - all you need is lots of sweat, years of toil, and more sincerity & commitment to walk the ground then your opponent.
Based on what I've seen, I wouldn't mind punting a few quid on WP's Yee Jenn Jong in Joo Chiat and Koh Choong Yong in Sengkang West.
Lastly, Marine Parade GRC where I'll be voting - I hope I'm wrong, but an untested but popular Nicole Seah & her 4 other NSP deadbeats will not be able to overcome Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong, even with Kate Spade as a liability (I will not cheapen my blog by mentioning her name).
GohComplaints - courtesy of sei-ji rakugaki
Overall, based on 2006 numbers and voting pattern, if there's a swing of 7% or more nationwide - WP will retain Hougang and take Aljunied GRC.
But has there ever been such a significant swing?
With help from the ever reliable Wikipedia, the answer is a rather reassuring 'Yes':
1980 elections - PAP 77.7% - PAP wins all seats
1984 elections - PAP 64.8% - a drop of 12.9% - 1st victory for Chiam See Tong
1988 elections - PAP 63.2% - a drop of 1.6% - introduction of GRCs
1991 elections - PAP 61% - a drop of 2.2% - 1st election with Goh Chok Tong as PM, 1st victory for Low Thia Khiang
1997 elections - PAP 65% - increase of 4% - attributed to linkage of votes to HDB upgrading?
2001 elections - PAP 75.3% - increase of 10.3% - attributed to post 9-11 security fears?
2006 elections - PAP 66.6% - a drop of 8.7% - 1st election with Lee Hsien Loong as PM
So can there be a 7% swing at this 2011 elections?
Well, why not?
The ground is as sweet as it'll ever be due to seemingly widespread discontent with regards to Singapore being overcrowded with foreigners, high cost of living, widening rich-poor divide, the relentless pursuit of GDP growth over everything else, the perceived arrogance of the governing party, the exorbitant salaries they pay themselves etc...the list goes on.
CivilServants - courtesy of sei-ji rakugaki
Plus unlike previous elections where there's usually just one, at most two, outstanding opposition candidates, this time round, there seems to be a whole bunch of young, committed, intelligent and passionate people willing to stand up and be counted.
So yes, I feel the time is as good as any for such a swing.
As such, I'm predicting that for this election, there will be a swing of between 7-10% away from the PAP - they will end up with less than 60% of the votes, which will make it their worst result since Singapore's independence.
Worrying times for PAP then - the PM will be seen as weak for having overseen 2 successive elections with big percentage drops, plus daddy will most likely not be around for the next election.
Once he goes, PAP may well see a split between the hardliners and the liberals.
Overall, bad for PAP, but in terms of coming closer to an opposition with greater representation and voice in Parliament - good for Singapore?
Que sera, sera.
WP poster circa 1991
The more important message for now is:
The times they are a-changing!
If this country means anything to you at all, don't be politically apathetic - decide which issues are most important to you (your country heading in the right direction? PAP vs Opposition? will your MP keep your ward clean? 24 year old vs Airhead?) - then make your stand.
And perhaps most importantly -
Change Doesn't Come Without A Fight! =)
Vote wisely on 7 May.
Fingers crossed....
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